IDATE forecasts the rates of LTE adoption in 2012 and 2015. By ‘LTE adoption’, we mean the number of subscribers who access the mobile data via the LTE network. As at end 2015, we expect 13% of the subscriber base to be accessing LTE networks with discrepancies depending on countries.
More specifically, LTE subscribers should grow in the 2012-2015 period from 27 million to close to 300 million at end 2015 (EU5+Scandinavia, Japan, South Korea, China, USA).
• The GSA (Global Suppliers Association) is reporting 110 LTE network commitments in 48 countries at end May 2010. Up to 22 LTE networks should be in service by end 2010 and up to 37 LTE networks should be in service by end 2012.
• We based our estimates on estimated commercial launches of LTE services in 5 distinct regions/countries i.e, the USA, the EU5 plus Scandinavia, Japan, South Korea and China. They all have different backgrounds which affect their adoption of LTE and latest news is mentioned in each sub-sections.
• We think LTE services will not be launched before end 2011-2012 in EU5 and China, and not before end 2010-2011 in the USA, Japan and South Korea. We took into account recent commercial launches in Scandinavia.
• Regarding India which started 3G and BWA spectrum auctions in April 2010, the country cannot be ignored because of its huge population. IDATE expect LTE adoption could be driven by TD-LTE if BWA spectrum can be used for this technology in India.
Frédéric Pujol
Mobile Broadband Practice Director
259 billion Euro in 2009 and an expected 303 billion in 2013
Following a productive year in 2008, the telecom equipment market posted a decline worse than anticipated shrinking by 3.6% in infrastructure and by 9.9% in mobile handsets during 2009. In 2010, the global telecom equipment market growth rate is expected to remain stable as operators will still be cautious and wait for a gradual expected return to growth.
• The year 2009 was without a doubt a tough one for the telecom equipment market, as anticipated. With the confirmation of the warnings that began being sent out in the summer of 2008, equipment manufacturers were heavily affected displaying weak or bad performances. In particular, Nortel now under bankruptcy has been the first victim of the gloomy market conditions. Indeed, with the new economic conditions investments schedules were carefully revised. And operators had to establish priorities in network expenses.
• For the first time in 5 years, operators' capital expenditures declined in 2009 by 4.8%. The worldwide investment spending by telecom operators significantly decreased during 2009 totalling to 174 billion EUR. Both fixed and mobile CapEx reduced, by -4.0% and -5.5% respectively. This decrease is a combination of facts with the strong currency (US) devaluations, the gloomy economic context, the end of a five year network infrastructure investment cycle, the weak momentum in broadband access backing and the awaited 3G licence auctions.
• Operators' objectives in terms of very high speed broadband and mobile broadband penetrations will help boost up the telecom equipment market. Given the announcements made by major incumbents to massively deploy FTTx lines in the United Kingdom and USA, the fixed broadband access equipment market will increase gradually over the next two years and accelerate until 2015. In the mobile sector, despite LTE network deployment schedules and 3G/4G licenses awards - long awaited, the mobile access market is expected to hardly grow in 2010.
• In 2010, the global telecom equipment market growth rate is expected to remain stable as operators will still be cautious and wait for a gradual expected return to growth. Basically, operators' expenses will be selective while keeping their investments in IP-based equipment and optical transmission in order to meet the ever-increasing bandwidth requirements of businesses and consumers. Operators' objectives in terms of very high speed broadband and mobile broadband penetrations will help boost up the telecom equipment market. Given the announcements made by major incumbents to massively deploy FTTx lines in the United Kingdom, Brazil and China, the fixed broadband access equipment market will increase gradually over the next two years and accelerate until 2015. In the mobile sector, with LTE network deployment schedules and 3G/4G licenses awards - long awaited, the mobile access market is expected to slightly grow in 2010.
Tiana Ramahandry
Consultant
There were no major upheavals in the global Ultra Broadband market in the second half of 2009, and it continued to develop steadily in most parts of the world in terms of subscriber numbers and homes passed.
But beyond these figures that reflect the current situation, there have been several announcements from private operators and governments that have confirmed the interest in very high-speed access in most parts of the world.
The FTTH market’s growth momentum carried on into the second half of 2009, pushing the global base to close to 41 million FTTH/B subscribers by year-end, which marks a more than 16% increase in six months (FTTx subscriber numbers increase to 63 million when we include the following technologies: FTTH/B, VDSL, FTTLA, FTTx+LAN).
Over the next five years, this momentum is likely to translate into a significant increase in the number of homes passed: by the end of 2014, there will be close to 306 million homes passed for FTTH/B around the globe, of which more than half will still be located in Asia and 18% in Western Europe.
• On the matter of subscribers, Eastern Europe, which has already pulled ahead of Western Europe, with 3.5 million FTTH/B customers, compared to around 2 million in the west, is forecast to have an even bigger subscriber base than North America starting in 2012. Some countries in that part of the world, such as Lithuania, have a particularly dynamic market and, in addition to swift and vast rollouts, are managing to persuade the eligible households to subscribe to ultra high-speed access offers.
• Elsewhere, and especially in Asia, marketing the services has become operators’ primary concern, since coverage rates have already reached the saturation point in the most advanced markets. HKBN in Hong Kong is the operator marketing the most competitively priced offer of anywhere in the world: 1 Gbps for 26 USD a month.
• In 2014, 18 countries will have deployed optical fibre networks to more than 50% of homes, which is 10 more than at the end of 2009.
Top 10 countries in terms of FTTH/B subscribers, end of 2009
Rank # Country = FTTH/B Subscribers
1 # Japan = 17 140 000
2 # South Korea = 9 228 300
3 # USA = 5 700 000
4 # Russia = 3 040 000
5 # Taiwan = 1 675 000
6 # Hong Kong = 770 000
7 # China(1) = 710 000
8 # Sweden = 537 100
9 # Italy = 325 000
10#France = 308 200
________
(1) Not included are the roughly 17 million FTTx +LAN subscribers in China.
Source: IDATE
Top 10 FTTx operators around the world at the end of 2009 (in number of subscribers)
Rank # Operator / Main technology & architecture = FTTx Subscribers
1 # NTT (Japan) / FTTH/B GEPON = 12 779 000
2 # China Telecom(1) / FTTH - FTTx+LAN EPON LAN/DSL = 11 160 000
3 # China Netcom(2) / FTTH - FTTx+LAN EPON LAN/DSL = 5 590 000
4 # KT (South Korea) / FTTB EPON/GEPON = 4 630 000
5 # Verizon (USA) / FTTH BPON/GPON = 3 430 000
6 # SK Broadband (South Korea) / FTTB/LAN GEPON = 3 032 099
7 # ER Telecom (Russia) / FTTB = 2 140 000
8 # AT&T (USA) / FTTN VDSL2 = 2 100 000
9 # Chunghwa Telecom (Taiwan) / FTTB GEPON = 1 639 824
10# LG Powercom (South Korea) / FTTH/B EPON/GEPON = 1 566 206
______________
(1) of which 560,000 FTTH subscribers and 10.6 million FTTx/LAN subscribers.
(2) of which 90,000 FTTH subscribers and 5.6 million FTTx/LAN subscribers.
Source: IDATE
Roland Montagne
Head of IDATE’s Telecom Business Unit
When I was on the highway last Friday, stuck in traffic as I headed out of town for the weekend, I was reminded of the image that Columbia University professor Tim Wu used to trigger the debate on network neutrality back in 2005. When I got to the toll booth, I had the choice of two tickets: one would allow me to drive at the maximum speed limit by taking a special “rush hour” lane, provided I was the proud owner of a vehicle built by one of the three car-makers that had signed exclusivity agreements with the company that operates the motorways. The other ticket let me take the lanes clogged with the masses. Of course, this isn’t what happened – well not exactly – and I was forced to be patient along with everyone else.
Discussions on the topic of Net neutrality became increasingly prevalent, to the extent that they became a focal point for public authorities in the early 2010s – the various viewpoints expressing the expectations and interests of the various stakeholders. Sparring off were two extremes – staunch supporters of an unmovable Internet and guardians of its original dogma, and the opportunistic industry players accused of wanting to confiscate entire swathes of the Web to line their pockets – which made for often heated, but always interesting and stimulating debate. While a number of the elements discussed now seem to be truly a thing of the past, like the issue of differentiated pricing, others are still with us, such as having free access to both local and globalized content.
Even if the analogy needs to be used carefully, I can’t help but draw a parallel between the concept of Net neutrality and that of Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” which has been so often cited to depict the debate between proponents of laissez-faire economics and protectionists. At the core in both instances is a state of ideal balance that is achieved thanks to a mythical allusion to something that has never actually existed in real life. Did the Web’s so-called golden era of original neutrality not give birth to behemoths like Google in record time? The goal was in fact to achieve a real balance between opposing forces, by tracing a path through the pitfalls of evangelism and dogmatism. On the whole, this message of pragmatism caught on, with more or less success depending on the country, by being enforced by regulatory authorities – whose purview generally includes both networks and content – in most cases guided by the golden rules of transparency, non-discrimination, competition in the access market and stimulating investment and innovation.
Of course, it should be said that today’s Internet bears very little resemblance to the Internet as it was in its infancy. Although the distinction between the Web of networks and the Web of applications is still relevant for maintaining what some refer to as “balanced neutrality,” with an underlying dynamic that is still very much with us: a networks industry – which continues to become more and more concentrated, especially in Europe, and which is sustained by massive investments in ultra broadband fixed and mobile infrastructure – that needs to adapt to a proliferation of endlessly regenerated applications and content (semantic Web, the Internet of data, the real-time Web, the mobile Internet, the 3D Web, the Internet of things…).
Ultimately, a tenuous balance made it possible to define a fixed and mobile Internet for all, with minimum conditions applied to access services in terms of quality, pricing and content. And this is the platform on which a range of offers and approaches continues to be deployed by specialized access providers, vertically integrated operators, powerful Internet companies capable of marketing a growing array of services while investing in sections of network infrastructure, and a wide variety of purveyors of innovative services. All this while remaining, ultimately, subject to the scrutiny of users who want relevant services and turn away from obsolete offers.
Arriving at last at my weekend destination, after such a long trip over such a short distance, and already forgetting the inevitable traffic jams that await my return, I make a VoIP call on my mobile, which has become both a very common way to make phone calls and a small victory in the vast battlefield that is Net neutrality.
Jean-Dominique Séval
IDATE has published several reports on related topics, including:
- "Mobile VoIP" by Soichi Nakajima
- "The Online Content Distribution Market" by Vincent Bonneau
Drawing on work carried out by Yves Gassot on the regulation of communications markets – as part of IDATE’s Digiworld Programme.
In late April, WAT.tv, the video site operated by French TV broadcaster TF1, rolled out an upgrade that included sharing, recommendation, rating and Facebook streaming tools.
"Thanks to these new features, Wat has expanded the social dimension of its service and is offering users a richer and more engaging experience by capitalizing on the popularity of the globe’s biggest social network (more than 400 million members),” says IDATE senior consultant, S. Girieud, while pointing out that, “this partnership with Facebook should help attract and keep new users and/or generate more traffic on the online video platform, and so help boost the ad-based monetization of its inventory”.
The data portability solutions developed by the top social networking sites (Facebook Connect, MySpace Data Availability and Sign-in-with-Twitter) allow free online TV and video services, such as TV networks’ websites, VoD services, video websites, etc., to incorporate tools from the most popular social networks (e.g. Facebook Live Feed, Twitter feed, etc.), which will help build and keep users and generate more traffic, and so improve their ad revenue potential. Incorporating the core tools from the most popular social networking sites allows free online TV and video services to offer a richer user experience and so to build its audience (increase the number of users and traffic, time spent on the site, page views, etc.), and so to improve its ad space sales.
By integrating a major social network’s most popular tools (Facebook’s Live Feed, Twitter’s tweets), free online TV/video services such as TV channel Web sites, VOD services and video sharing platforms can offer their users a richer viewing experience. Better experiences in turn help create and retain audience and/or additional traffic (more visits and visitors, more time spent, more page views) and thereby generate more ad revenue from a site’s inventory. This is also a way for sites to continue to develop their services, to innovate and to fulfill their users’ potential desire for interactive and community features. Social tools are seeing more and more demand from Web users and are gradually moving from “nice to have” features to “can’t live without” necessities.
IDATE has published the report Social Video addressing these questions, presenting key figures for the social networking and online video markets and describing the major innovations spawned by the meeting of social networks and video. The challenges and strategies of the players on the field are detailed in case studies.
Project Leader
Sophie Girieud
s.girieud@idate.org
Is Satellite indispensible to the supply of end user access?
After having had a mixed reception in the early 2000s, two-way Internet access via satellite has been enjoying a revival for the past two years or so – especially in North America, Asia and now in Europe as well. Government programmes for reducing the digital divide, along with the gradual migration to ultra high-speed solutions are allowing satellite technology to play an ever-increasing role in the landscape.
"IDATE estimates that between 2010 and 2014, the number of broadband satellite subscribers in Europe and North Africa will increase by 45% annually, to reach 610,000 subscribers in 2014 compared to close to 138,000 at the end of 2010," says Project Manager, Maxime Baudry.
Main trends in ultra high-speed access via satellite
• With the growing number of programmes in Europe aimed at reducing the digital divide, satellite needs to capitalize on its assets to be among the potential technological solutions.
• Attracting even greater focus than the digital divide in Europe is the race to deploy ultra high-speed access.
• In the battle with terrestrial technologies, and particularly wireless ones (3G and LTE), satellite technology needs to leverage its assets – the main one being immediate availability at a reasonable cost.
• IDATE believes that ultra-fast broadband via satellite is a market that is poised to grow a tremendous rate in the coming years, not only because of programmes devoted to reducing the digital divide but also the efforts to deploy ultra high-speed solutions, as satellite will have an advantage in rural areas over LTE and FTTx which would not be cost effective solutions.
• While the Ka band is developing in Europe, and elsewhere around the globe, the future of ultra high-speed access via satellite could develop in even higher frequency bands that would enable speeds of over 100 Mbps by 2020.
What is the real market outlook for satellite technology when competing with terrestrial technologies, both wireline and wireless? What positioning strategies hold the greatest potential for satellite access providers, given the features of the broadband market in the different geographical areas being targeted? What future satellite technologies are currently in the works?
IDATE’s market report devoted to ultra-broadband via satellite provides the answers to these questions, among others, and supplies up-to-date figures on both the satellite and competing markets.
Project Manager
Maxime Baudry
m.baudry@idate.org
We are seeing the first signs that our economies are improving. Which can only be a good thing. But this will also provide a clearer view of the structural changes that telcos will have to contend with once the recession is passed.
After the era of monopolistic telephone markets (Telecom 1.0), we experienced a period of competition that was largely facilitated by the tremendous success of mobile telephony (Telecom 2.0). And it is now a third stage that is taking shape for telecom carriers (Telecom 3.0), which is characterized by the following:
• Telcos’ revenue is no longer growing in any significant way in the most mature markets even though consumption continues to get heavier and new users are signing up. In a situation where the sector has appeared to be relatively resilient, the 2010 edition of IDATE’s DigiWorld Yearbook provides the following figures on fixed and mobile market revenue growth in 2009:
- for the EU-27: -2.1% overall (-3.2% fixed; -1.1% mobile),
- for Japan: -2.8% (-2.2% fixed; -1.1% mobile);
- for the United States: +0.7% (-1.6% fixed; +3.3% mobile);
- and for South Korea: +1.9% (-0.7% for fixed; +3.5% for the mobile market).
The sector’s annual growth worldwide is now being sustained almost singlehandedly by
emerging economies and developing countries.
• This difficult situation for telcos in the most advanced markets comes at a time when a new round of investments is needed to deploy fixed and mobile ultra high-speed
infrastructure. The optical fibre access rollout plans are very costly and potentially risky given how complex they will be to carry out, the uncertainties over consumers’ ability to pay more for a subscription to access superfast broadband services, and the regulatory uncertainties. In the United States, for instance, Verizon made its investments with the target of having its average monthly invoice come closer to what cablecos are earning thanks to pay-TV’s contribution to the market. In Asia, the size of the cities, the high percentage of vertical housing and the ability to install overhead cable is helping sustain the main market players’ drive to switch the majority of their customers to an ultra high-speed solution by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, the competition model in Europe – which in many instances has been intramodal, thanks to unbundling of the incumbent carrier’s copper local loop – is becoming problematic: the incumbent’s competitors, i.e. LLU operators, are stuck on the last rung of ladder of investment.
• The fantastic progress made by wireless technology and the mobile Internet’s first promising steps also require investments (LTE) and spectrum. And, for telcos, they will
also mean as significant a paradigm shift as the one that landline telephony has had to accept, i.e. the death of revenue based chiefly on billing for calling minutes.
• It will be increasingly hard for telcos to avoid adopting a convergence strategy: deploying and supplying both fixed and mobile high speed access.
• The arrival of mass media on the Web is forcing telcos more and more into a situation of having to answer for complying with all of the rules that the company needs to adopt to satisfy the plurality of viewpoints, protect children, protect copyrighted works and consumers’ privacy, help promote national and regional culture…
• The size of the required investment, operators’ reticence and the desire to achieve nationwide coverage as quickly as possible (with the focus of universal service shifting to broadband access) will mean greater involvement from the State and public authorities (better coordination of works to help minimize civil engineering costs, subsidies in sparsely populated areas, support for national champions, agreements between telcos and public authorities that combine meeting targets and setting regulatory measures…).
• The sector’s growth will be shaped in large part by the balance of power achieved with now inter-related vertical markets: entertainment, healthcare, security, finance, energy, etc. Different strategic options present themselves here:
a) supplying customized and very competitive wholesale access offers that lead telcos to withdraw to a large extent from the end market and its exacerbated competition;
b) positioning as a distributor, which involves monetizing ultra high-speed access under a two-sided market model,
c) vertical integration in certain market segments.
Depending on a market’s features (population density, civil engineering assets, regulation that imposes more or less of a functional separation between networks and services), these options may be combined with a propensity to outsource or share a portion of the infrastructure.
• Sooner or later, the series of imperatives weighing on telcos will lead to a new round of market concentration at the national and regional level (can we really keep four to six
telcos in each of the 27 markets in the European Union?). In the meantime, we will be seeing players in the large emerging markets (BRIC countries) working to seize the latest opportunities in developing markets and having a growing presence in the major national mergers and acquisitions.
• Cloud architectures and the Internet of the future could be seen as new opportunities for telcos, but they could also be a brutal wake-up call if the leading content aggregators manage, in the meantime, to deploy most of the cloud infrastructure themselves – allowing them to supply the quality of service that content and applications providers require.
• Given the instability of this landscape, regulators will need to forget about imposing an implicit ex ante framework that seeks to anticipate all of the possible risks… as much as any prospect for a temporary regulatory holiday. They need to take a middle path that blends the definition of collective priority targets, close scrutiny of the main areas of uncertainty (including possible anti-trust measures) and setting clear deadlines for reviews and for regulatory decisions.
Yves GASSOT
CEO, IDATE
Social networking sites: Key innovation partners for the TV and video industry
Not only have social networks emerged as new distribution and promotion channels for video content, but they also provide innovative social solutions for TV channels and online video sites. This makes them powerful, crucial partners for the entertainment industry at a time when the media and the Web are increasingly social.
Social networking and watching videos online are now everyday practices on the Web, just like search, e-mail and browsing. These activities have given rise to new Web titans that are increasingly interrelated.
Today we are seeing social networks and TV and video companies coming together to create innovative solutions for broadcast and online video content:
• Connected television sets are making social networking sites available directly on the small screen, in the form of widgets. Social TV, the ideal combination of TV programs and social networking, gives channels a way to capitalize on their program lineup and enhance the TV viewing experience.
• Data portability solutions developed by the leading social networking sites (Facebook Connect, MySpace Data Availability, Sign in with Twitter) make it possible for free online TV and video services such as a TV channel’s Web site, a VOD service or a community video platform, to integrate popular tools from those communities (Facebook’s Live Feed, Twitter tweets). This helps create and retain new audiences and/or additional traffic, thereby generating more ad revenue.
• More and more people are viewing and sharing video content on social networking sites. For the entire range of TV and video services, from traditional channels to YouTube to Hulu, social networks have the makings of a new social and viral channel for promoting and distributing content, allowing them expand their reach. But in order for these players to profit from the dissemination of their content across the social Web, they need to use an appropriate advertising strategy.
• Content recommendations are becoming increasingly important for pay-VOD players, which could boost the relevance—and as a result, the effectiveness—of their suggestions by using the social graph as a filter. Consumers would receive video recommendations from contacts in their social networks, since these people are especially reliable sources of information whose recommendations they trust. However, any use of the social graph must respect users’ privacy and keep personal data confidential.
Social networks have a lot to gain economically by working with the TV and video industry. These alliances can not only help them boost advertising revenue but also provide them new sources of income as purveyors of community-based solutions.
What challenges and strategies will these converging players take on, and what will be the economic impact of Social Video in the coming years?
IDATE has published a report addressing these questions, presenting key figures for the social networking and online video markets and describing the major innovations spawned by the meeting of social networks and video. The challenges and strategies of the players on the field are detailed in case studies.
Project Leader
Sophie Girieud
s.girieud@idate.org
Please also visit our website for further information on this report
IDATE provides regular analyses of the world television markets' main trends - technologies, revenues and services. On the occasion of the MIP TV in Cannes, France (12-16 April 2010) IDATE have teamed up to publish an exclusive edition of its special white paper: “TV 2010 -Markets & Trends” taken from several IDATE market reports.
The worldwide television market was, in 2009, primarily affected by the decline in advertising revenue of 9.2%, which could not be compensated for by paid television or public funding; these two sources of revenue increased 7.2% and 3.5% respectively. Up until 2008, advertising was by far the primary means of funding for the industry, generating about 50% of the sector's revenue, compared to 40% for paid television and 10% for public funding. In 2009, the weight of advertising and subscriptions each accounted for about 45% of the sector’s revenue. By 2010, revenue from paid television should exceed overall advertising revenue worldwide, reaching a ratio of approximately 47%/44% by 2013.
"Industry did not escape the consequences of the global economic crisis; the crisis particularly affected television advertising revenue. Nevertheless, IDATE predicts that the market will exceed its 2008 level in 2010", comments Florence Le Borgne, project leader of the World Television Markets report.
Pay TV as new driving force in broadcast revenues has to evolve
Despite the fact that it is weathering the economic crisis rather well, pay TV will need to evolve in the short term as a result of a host of factors, mostly related to technology, competition and consumption patterns.
High-definition (HD) TV, which is currently a short-term source of differentiation and increased ARPU for pay-TV operators, will soon be relegated to the everyday as DTT becomes the norm. Although 3D could reinvigorate innovation-based competition among pay-TV services over the longer term, a number of obstacles still need to be overcome before this technology can take off.
Faced with competition from more multichannel free-to-air offerings on DTT and the success of video-sharing platforms, pay channels must work even harder to offer value-added programming and services to build subscriber loyalty and attract new customers. Theme channels have the weakest business models and therefore are the most threatened.
As video consumption becomes increasingly independent of a TV schedule, pay-TV operators are gradually implementing solutions to meet viewers’ need for flexibility and personalization. These services act as additional sources of revenue for these operators.
The predicted development of mobile TV is also expected to impact the sector, though for the time being mobile TV/video is still far from being a leading mobile service—users consider it more as a "nice-to-have" than a "must-have." Regular, sustainable patterns for mobile viewing remain to be established; they are currently limited to occasional use by a small percentage of savvier consumers.
Television 2020 – The Web Migration
All the conditions for the television industry’s migration to the Internet are now in place:
• consumers are comfortable with online visual consumption;
• technical solutions that give users access to Internet content on their television sets have been implemented;
• open Internet access is possible from mobile telephones;
• premium content is available on the Web;
• online video quality of service is improving;
• new players from industries related to the television industry have aligned their strategies.
While this migration will be gradual, it will have a deep-seated impact on the industry:
• the exclusive rights model will no longer be the standard;
• some consumers will abandon traditional managed networks;
• a globalization trend will be sparked, to the benefit of the major rights holders.
Unlike the music and print media industries, the TV industry is gaining a strong position on the Web. As a result, television is poised to play a central role in video services. This offensive strategy will likely pay off down the line, but does not entirely eliminate the possibility of destroying value. There are structural reasons for this, including a fiercely competitive online advertising market and a lack of control over program circulation.
Far from being simply transitory, the 2009-2010 economic downturn marks the beginning of a decade of restructuring for the TV industry. This new period will begin with an overall decline in the sector’s resources before increasingly varied consumption patterns spur a new period of growth. The decade running from 2010 to 2020 will also be a period that focuses on cost control, with the industrialization of TV production that will depart once and for all from its historical model, i.e., film.
This migration to the Web poses a threat to the European industry in particular.
A reassessment of the television industry’s regulatory strategy appears both necessary and urgent, and will involve the creation of integrated pan-European conglomerates.
For further information please feel free to visit our website www.idate-research.com
Jeremy George
Sales Department TV & Digital Content
Salon du Livre de Paris – Mars 2010
A l’occasion du Salon du Livre de Paris 2010, l’IDATE, cabinet de conseil et d’études spécialisé dans les télécommunications, l’Internet et les médias, présentera les conclusions d’une étude commanditée par le Ministère de la Culture et de la Communication sur les principaux marchés étrangers du livre numérique, c’est à dire le Japon, les Etats-Unis et le Canada.
Le marché du livre numérique japonais est le plus ancien et le plus développé au monde à l’heure actuelle. Il pèse 3% du marché total de l’édition en 2009 et se caractérise par la lecture sur le téléphone mobile, principalement de mangas. Faute de contenus attractifs disponibles en version numérique, les perspectives de croissance interne sont limitées ; les éditeurs préférant valoriser leur catalogue sur les marchés étrangers.
Aux Etats-Unis, le marché du livre numérique ne comptait en 2008 que pour 0.5% du marché total de l’édition mais les ventes d’ebook devraient connaître une croissance à trois chiffres en 2009. Le marché américain est le plus concurrentiel de la planète tant au niveau des catalogues de titres disponibles que des terminaux dédiés (e-readers) et non dédiés (smartphones, tablettes, consoles de jeux). Redessiné par les luttes d’influence entre les éditeurs, Amazon, Google et Apple, le marché devrait rapidement devenir le plus important au monde en valeur.
Quant au Canada, le marché du livre numérique est encore faible en valeur et reproduit les clivages linguistiques : l’offre anglophone est à la traîne des Etats-Unis tandis que l’offre francophone se structure autour d’un entrepôt numérique unique comptant plus de 2.500 titres et accessible à tous les éditeurs et libraires.
L’intervention au Salon du Livre présentera pour chaque pays les principales caractéristiques du marché (forces en présence, chaîne de valeur), les modalités de répartition de la valeur ainsi que les perspectives de croissance.
Au second trimestre 2010, l’IDATE publiera une étude globale sur les marchés du livre numérique majeurs en Amérique du Nord, Europe et Asie. L’étude dressera l’inventaire des stratégies, modèles économiques, politiques tarifaires et coûts induits des principaux acteurs du livre numérique. L’étude s’accompagnera d’une base de données des ventes d’œuvres numériques et des terminaux de lecture dédiés (e-readers) pour la période 2009-2013.
L’intervention des consultants de l’IDATE se déroulera le lundi 29 mars 2010 à 12H00 salle Julien Gracq, située sur le stand du Centre National du Livre. (Stand N86).
Vous pouvez dès à présent prendre rendez-vous avec les consultants de l’IDATE pour un entretien individuel en contactant :
Vincent Bonneau, responsable de la Business Unit Internet
v.bonneau@idate.org
04.67.14.44.53
06.89.89.88.19
Ou
Marc Leiba, consultant livre numérique et presse en ligne
m.leiba@idate.org
04.67.14.44.82
06.70.70.85.89
