Volume 40 - 4ème trimestre 2000 Special issue "From the Net to the New Economy: Critical and Prospective Views" Prix pour un exemplaire : 53,87 euros* H.T. Abonnement : 161,61 euros* H.T. (4 numéros par an)   Frais de port compris       Commander Résumés Sommaire Introduction par Jacques Arlandis             Lire en ligne Charles GOLDFINGER:"Intangible Economy and financial Markets"     * les réglements peuvent également être effectués en francs français (1 euro = 6,55957 FRF) Introduction An on-going debate has aroused the attention of a certain elite that we have called the "Triad", in which the Clerck, the Merchant and the Politician come into their own (1) . This debate, which takes the form of a polemic, can be summed up by two questions: "What is really new about the "New Economy?" and "Is the "Net Economy" the veritable life force of the "New Economy?" If we were to answer yes to the second question, we would be making a de facto choice about the first. But this kind of simplistic approach appears insufficient in the context of this current debate. How can we use outdated categories to reflect upon the New Economy in light of the quasi-mysterious disappearance of inflation and the quasi-mysterious paradox of productivity? How we can keep ourselves from looking for radically new forms of social and economic organisation in the Net Economy? A debate chiefly focused on the specific characteristics of the Net Economy The underlying uncertainties in this question-answer game are probably far greater. I will leave it up to Charles GO L D F I N G E R to set the scene, as exhibited in the introduction to his article: "That the economy is undergoing a far-reaching, rapid and ubiquitous change is a largely controvertible statement. What is considerably more controversial is the nature of change. Knowledge Economy, Digital Economy, Information Society, Experience Economy, names for the new economy proliferate to the point of becoming ubiquitous buzzwords. Yet, can we say that we really understand today’s economy? Do we agree on its rationale and development path? The answer to those questions is clearly no. Economists and statisticians, whose role is to explain the workings of the economy and to provide performance and value metrics, are perplexed and bewildered. Despite data sophistication and availability, substantive deficiencies, concerning such key variables as productivity, foreign trade, investment and financial accounting measures, remain. The need for a new conceptual framework for the modern economy remains paramount. Such a framework should build upon the contributions of the service and information economy approaches but should be broader to encompass other significant trends such as the financial markets explosion and development of entertainment industry." To a certain extent, what we have here - without the authors united for the purpose of this review coming to any unanimous agreement on the subject -is a key to the understanding of the entire issue of COMMUNICATIONS & S T R A T E G I E S. We will not be venturing directly into the debate mentioned above (2) since it would be pointless to think that the relationship between the Net and the New Economy is merely one of cause and effect. If we wish to elucidate this matter we will therefore have to identify the paradigm of both the New and the Net Economy, establish how they interact, or indeed, interpenetrate and discover the way in which they inherit things from one another. We will obviously not be steering clear of this debate completely: Jean-Hervé LORENZI's contribution on the financing of the New Economy will be tackling this question in these terms: "The exceptional performance of the US economy throughout the '90s, notably characterized by inflation-free high growth, a buoyant job market and higher asset prices, has led economists to successively examine the New Economy phenomenon, the reality of its favourable effects and the risks that it engenders. At the heart of these three considerations lies the negative and positive role that the new requirements for financing growth may play, and those of the New Economy more particularly. However, it would be a good idea to know exactly what we are talking about when we refer to the "New Economy" since this concept is still unclear." We will be shifting the focus of our analysis slightly however, since th question running through all the contributions to this issue of COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES will be: "What is really new about the New Economy?" This question is less open to controversy and invites more analysis, even if it implicitly brings to mind the seeds of change, which in their present, more or less active and more or less severe form, are capable of spreading throughout the economy, and thus society. Bertrand MUNIER takes up these questions in his paper: "... it is not even clear what the truly new features of the New economy are. […] We [...] restrict ourselves to the Internet market economy as the core of the new economy." We have not in fact yet grasped all the new and disruptive dimensions of the Net Economy, or more generally, of the network-economy-in-which-information- goods-chiefly-circulate. This problem is illustrated in each of the contributions to this review. By way of an example, we can cite Charles GOLDFINGER's vivid perspective : "The intangible economy is too often seen as a purely technology-driven phenomenon. The new economy is thus seen as the triumph of bits over atoms. The intangible economy is non-deterministic and transcends the opposition between bits and atoms the same way that quantum physics transcends the opposition between particles and waves." Over and above the interest of such and such an article that is much along the same lines as our own immediate concerns or simply likely to awaken our curiosity, this issue of COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES provides the reader with a certain insight into state-of-the-art academic reflection, which reaches beyond the quasi-theological debate between "New" and "Net" economies to focus on the analysis of '"what is actually changing." However, let us now have a closer look at content and try to put this work into perspective, which is, in turn, the sole ambition of this introduction. Post-Fordism, Value, Cognition - three poles of a common reflection In my opinion, the different papers in this issue lend themselves well to a "polarisation" of the debate into three themes: - The theme of innovation, change and transformation could be summarised by a many-sided question on the emergence of a post-Fordist economy. - At the heart of this New Economy lies the central question of value, on which all these analyses shed light in their common endeavour to clarify every single detail - As if part and parcel of a reflection that fluctuates between tradition and renewal, the analysis of post-Fordism and value implicitly raises the question of the cognitive model(s) underpinning these analyses, visions and proposals. ICTs: ambivalence in the Post-Fordist era "The socio-democratic model that we inherited from Fordism is dead. It is macro-economically dead as a result of the treatment that it inflicted upon itself, sociologically dead with the emergence of new divisions, and culturally dead with the disappearance of the utopia with which it went hand in hand. i.e. that of a society that had been made fairer through the work of a great clockmaker, to which the State was compared” (3) . Without radically adopting this advanced argument, our authors do contribute, in a pointillistic manner, to what seems to me to be a reflection on the emergence of a new social and economic deal that can be related to the definition of a post-Fordist era. Fordism combined production oligopolisation and the localisation of companies and workers as a means of industrial organisation. Both the system of authority and that of counter-powers required direct control over the workforce, which explains urban concentration, followed by the tertiarisation of economic activity. This system organises (more or less efficiently) the management of the flow of people and consequently, the development of urban areas, at once employment zones and social-life areas/spaces, based upon people and the mobility of goods. Post-Fordism is still poorly perceived, but the rationale for flexibility - as much in terms of production unit localisation as in terms of the types of labour contracts - results in a far more diffuse definition of social space. Information and Communication Technologies are ambivalent when it comes to these developments. This ambivalence prevents us from measuring their full impact, whilst leading us to believe that these technologies will play a determining role in many respects. On the one hand, they do actually allow for broader, more distanced and meditated management of authority and control relationships due to their capacity to manage ubiquity, which means that they can consolidate the Fordist model. On the other hand, they are able to support more radical developments and could virtually liberate market relationships from physical space or time constraints. They could even allow for the implementation/setting-up of virtual companies for which the main factors of production, capital, work and technique could be bundled together to form recursive production functions, providing flexibility logics with a strong and coherent technical result. While some fashionable authors merely advance the theory of chance or better still, of concomitant positive changes, to explain the transformations underway: "Chance has decided to well and truly set the scene by stretching the market to the world's edge, creating a technical upheaval that has simultaneously transformed supply and demand, and producing a well-controlled, sustainable macro-economic environment. These are not epiphenomena - they underpin a profound transformation of the market economy along with the emergence of a new capitalist model." (4) , our contributors do analyse the precise, specific or sensitive aspects of change, which they had all pinpointed, far more deeply. These "sensitive aspects" are called OSS, P2P, DMR, … and referring to them in this way through the use of barbaric acronyms allows me to remind the reader of two obvious facts: - Since the rules of the game in the Net Economy are chiefly defined in the United States, the rest of the world, is, at best, capable of playing on rules that came from across the Atlantic, in the case of us Europeans. At the very most, we are able to suggest certain changes of direction on the sidelines. - The characteristics of the Net Economy are primarily technical, then economical and social. This dual reality is illustrated by the American Digital Millenium Copyright Act - right down to the millenarian emphasis heralding a new era. Michael EINHORN discusses "the strength" of this in a paper that is both factual and stimulating, by evoking the recent legal case that arose from the decryption of the DVD in great detail - the on-going transformation has already given rise to the question of what is durable and what is not. The reflection on "DRM, digital right management as a solution to building the marketplace" opens out onto a kind of change that I would call institutional (5) . The music industry, which Eric de FONTENAY writes about in an equally stimulating article, is a good target for the New/Net Economy: the majors' stronghold on the market is now being attacked by technical innovation which relays something that is currently in the air - the splitting up of products (zapping, unbundling, etc.) - to which institutional innovation then responds (6). . But regulatory authorities primarily change in response to a quantum transformation. "In the digital medium, scarcity gives way to plenty" ( GO L D F I N G E R). "The implications of the emergence of digital goods and new distribution models are simply revolutionary." (FONTENAY). The Internet economy is a breath-taking economy made up of an infinite number of suppliers, demanders and information goods and a staggering amount of new supercomputers/networks, as demonstrated by the SETI@home experiment for which the figure of 1.6 million participants in 224 countries has been given - along with 10 teraflops of work capacity. Less spectacular, but already in place, are the 20 million Web sites that criss-cross our virtual territories. However, despite the fact that tomorrow's infrastructure will be built of Peer-to-Peer and massive parallel processors, we must not forget the role that "the Internet arrangement" of the '90s still plays in this environment through backbones-servers-access-peering and its incredibly efficient economy - the work of a genius called IP (7) . Although the evolution of questions is apparent here in comparison to a COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGIES previous issue devoted to the Net Economy ( 8 ) , demonstrating a shift of emphasis from the economy of IP networks to that of the Web ( 9 ) , we are forced to recognise that the economy related to this IP infrastructure is of paramount importance to the apprehension of the fresh set of problems addressed by our authors. This theme can be found in all the analyses, to the extent that we are able to speak of protean changes: "With the emergence of digital entertainment, wether a MP3, ebook or streaming video, there is an inexorable shift in the market from entertainment as a commodity to entertainment as a service, or an experience ..." (FONTENAY). "The conventional logic stresses equilibrium, the dematerialisation logic, disequilibrium. [...] The three fundamental features of dematerialisation logic are: abundance, interpenetration and indeterminac [...] The impact of the intangible economy is pervasive and ubiquitous and affects all sectors and activities… [...] The fact is that, in the world of global economy and geofinance, markets remain remarkably diverse and this diversity is growing. Financial markets should be seen as a loose set of interconnected markets rather than a single tightly integrated market. They constitute a network of networks, a financial equivalent of Internet." (GOLDFINGER). We will leave it up to the reader to progressively discover this "mass" of changes, viewed from our authors' micro-economic angle. These micro-transformations will probably continue to accumulate until they bring about a global transformation of production and consumption methods. A still hesitant approach to the question of value The relative resurgence of certain themes (regulation, public policies or indeed strategies) granting weight to topics like the market, pricing and business models, places value once more at the heart of a significant number of contributions (VAALER & MCKNIGHT, MUNIER, CURIEN et alii, GOLDFINGER). “Economic characteristics of intangible artefacts render conventional pricing and transaction mechanisms largely inadequate to capture their economic value. [...] ... the “infinite regress”: it is impossible to determine whether it is worthwhile to obtain a given piece of information without having this information" (GOLDFINGER). In those articles that are not centred upon the question of value, this is nevertheless an underlying theme: "Some OSS projects are large and complex and still have succeeded in achieving commercial quality" (PEYRACHE, CRÉMER & TIROLE). "The copyright owner in reality loses control over its monopoly right to dictate the manner in which the copyrighted work is distributed and consequently its market price" (FONTENAY). ”In the information markets, the principal strength of participants is not a detention of financial assets but the mastery of price information." (GOLDFINGER) The economic status of information is frequently questioned. What was once an element of the neo-classical paradigm "The consumption side of the Internet can only benefit of being closer than ever to the perfect information postulate of idealized market." (MUNIER), is now becoming an imperative for the creation of values in a complex game of hypotheses: "Such database producing activities are specific aspects of the value creation hidden behind the window of the wishlist service." (MUNIER). We either apply the commodity paradigm to it (production/productivity; distribution/access; consumption/use) and value becomes a cross-sectional element, or we treat it as if it were external and change the very concept of value so that it is no longer a part of market-production-exchange, thus by-passing the traditional market: "The less a market for a window service exists in the traditional economy, the more real will be value creation by the site offering it." (MUNIER). On the basis of GOLDFINGER's statement: "Nevertheless, the property of jointness has not disappeared. Accessing information through Internet requires infrastructure and interfaces, which are distinct from the information itself.", we are able to put forward the idea, with numerous articles to back our argument (FO N T E N A Y, MU N I E R, CU R I E N et alii, EI N H O R N), that the meaning-knowledge- affect portion of the value-added chain should increase in size given the fact that the cost of activities-production-transport-distribution is close to 0, and this should either maintain or augment the overall value of information goods. The consequence of this - and, in my opinion we are no longer talking about a working hypothesis here - would be the necessity to enhance the importance of the two activities at the limits of value chain (classic criteria do not apply): creation and consumption. This would take us into a time economy, which has yet to be largely formalised, but this is also a question of cognition. An incursion into the epistemological field: cognitive models After reading these papers, I am still willing to point out the obvious: the way in which the terms used to analyse change or the value of the Net/New Economy are supported by the cognitive model(s) we employ. Is it possible to think about change or value using the concepts, theories, or even statistics currently at our disposal at the dawn of a transformation that I consider to be radical? We would be surprised if someone dared to question the very existence of the Industrial Revolution that marked the end of the XIXth century for the simple reason that the cognitive model we refer to a century later is very firmly anchored in our minds" (10) . And yet, what emerges here is collective ambition. We could say that the group of analyses presented in this review has contributed by tracking down change wherever it appears to take place and by establishing an appropriate reading grid to define its nature and measure its impact using pointillist techniques. As Charles GOLDFINGER points out: "The need for a new conceptual framework for the modern economy remains paramount. Such a framework should build upon the contributions of the service and information economy approaches but should be broader to encompass other significant trends such as the financial markets explosion and development of entertainment industry". To what extent should we call into question our present grids of analysis to apprehend the full impact of the Net Economy? Just how capable are we of diagnosing its nature and its importance or of breaking it down into smaller effects, which, in turn, produce a more or less radical global transformation? I think that this kind of insistent questioning is implicit in all of the analyses presented in the review. I do not think that this is just one more epistemological question (the fact that it actually exists makes it interesting to a certain extent). As far as I am concerned, the challenge at hand is incredibly practical in nature. We are able to say that we are currently experiencing a phase of speculative thought - not so much in relation to micro-economic speculation (goodwill, PER, ROE, etc.), which leads to a certain amount of market versatility, but in relation to the trouble that we have in grasping an almost-perpetual state of emergence and questioning. Some of the authors (CURIEN & alii, MUNIER, VAALER & MCKNIGHT) chose formal analysis to bring to light simple speculations, and others contributed by offering an "informed" analysis of concrete situations ( FO N T E N A Y, PEYRACHE, CRÉMER & TIROLE, EINHORN). The paradigm of the New Economy, capitalism, patrimonialism, the time economy and Schumpeterian entrepreneurs all give cognitive models countless opportunities to renew themselves. The authors have all more or less broken new ground as far as the use of concepts or typologies/ categories is concerned: “Three factors should be brought to attention here: density, thinness, relevance." (MUNIER). ... "the tripartite information structure is made up of a private information source (personal experience), a public information source (the conventional retailer) and a collective information source (forums). […] Self organisation occurs when the consumers attribute close weights to both their personal experience and the advice that they gather from the others.” (CURIEN & alii) It is therefore tempting to try to work out a cause and effect relationship between the emerging phenomena that have been apprehended by new concepts: self-organisation, loyalty, confidence, infomediary, etc. Traditional economic thought is opposed to this research in innovation (and is intermingled with it here). This is demonstrated by the central role that we continue to give to the market. We are even occasionally tempted to turn it into a borderline case in the fashion of the Chicago School legacy, through which all social relationships can be analysed as markets. It is also difficult to abandon the dogma of economic rationality: "Techniques used in Internet business culture together with investors risk psychology, as experimental economics has taught it to us in the last twenty years... [...] in this respect, overvaluation can be regarded as indeed rational". (MUNIER). As a final note, we cannot refrain from mentioning two economists, Keynes and Schumpeter, who although eminent, adhere to the principle of the consolidation of industrial capitalism (via major shake-ups like crises and war). Interestingly enough, this to-ing-and-fro-ing of cognitive models between Tradition and Modernity does not preclude the use of references to certain distant forms of industrial or patrimonial capitalism (the bazaar, the cathedral, etc.), as if the renewal of thought continues to be prerequisite for analysing the concrete changes brought about by the deployment of the Net Economy, which becomes increasingly pregnant in meaning as days go by. Jacques ARLANDIS   (1) See Jacques ARLANDIS in Governance of Global Networks, Nomos Ed., 1999. (2) The reader may refer to Gadrey, Minc andRifkin for an approach of this kind. (3)These are the direct words used by the essayist Alain Minc to describe one of the terms of change. A major part of the analyses proposed by Alain Minc was formulated in the IDATE Foundation Report, Society in the Face of Multimedia (1995) to which he contributed. (4) Alain Minc, op. cit. (6) The "institution" is seen as a particular form of social or economic organisation, which is characterised, among other things, bu its durable nature. (6) These new institutional arrangements are still frequently inspired by technical models: the three-layer model of applications; PDs (personnal device) and LCMs (licence-compliant modules) that could be implemented as a result of the Napster case, reminds us of the one employed for intelligent networks. (7) See ARLANDIS & TURPIN in Des Télécommunications à l’Internet, for an analysis of this economy. (8) See COMMUNICATIONS &STRATEGIES, n° 28, 4th quarter 1997. (9) I introduced this distinction between the Net Economy and the Web Economy in DesTélécommunications à l'Internet, op. cit., 1999. (10) The Industrial Revolution of the Middle Ages, which, in retrospect, was constructed by certain historians using the current cognitive model, can be called the first industrial revolution, that of the XIXth century, the second, and that of information technologies, the third. This perspective broadens the scope of reflection on the capitalist system and keeps the present debate on "what is new" in perspective.       Résumés Jean-Hervé LORENZI Impact du financement de la nouvelle économie sur la croissance L’exceptionnelle performance de l’économie des Etats-Unis durant les années 1990 a conduit les économistes à s’interroger successivement sur le phénomène de la nouvelle économie, la réalité de ses effets favorables et les risques qu’elle engendre. Au cœur de ces trois interrogations, se situe celle du rôle que pourrait jouer en positif et en négatif les conditions nouvelles de financement de la croissance et singulièrement celles de la nouvelle économie. Dans une première partie, nous reviendrons sur la définition des termes. Les termes utilisés recouvrent en effet des concepts loin d’être identiques pour tous. Cet exercice de clarification nous permettra, en outre, d’identifier certaines interactions existant entre les différents éléments, et surtout de mettre en évidence l’existence d’un mode de financement spécifique à la nouvelle économie. Dans une seconde partie, nous tenterons de cerner les éléments de réponses apportés par la théorie de la croissance économique sur la manière dont le financement de la nouvelle économie peut influer sur la croissance. En particulier, la productivité étant identifiée comme la principale source de la croissance, nous nous interrogerons sur le fait de savoir si le financement de la nouvelle économie permet d’obtenir des gains de productivité et si ces gains peuvent justifier le niveau de valorisation des actifs de ce secteur. Cependant, la question de la justification des conditions de rentabilisation propre au secteur de la nouvelle économie nécessite de quantifier le risque pesant sur la nouvelle économie. C’est pourquoi nous présenterons, dans une troisième partie, les analyses divergentes d’économistes, avant de présenter nos propres conclusions et mettrons en évidence la réalité d’un risque financier mais aussi d’un risque économique. Charles GOLDFINGER Economie de l'intangible et marchés financiers Cet article traite des interactions entre l'économie de l'intangible et les marchés financiers. Nous démontrons que l'échange d'information n'est plus un dérivé mais une activité pivot des marchés financiers dans une économie impalpable. Les dynamiques menées par l'informatique offrent une explication plausible des caractéristiques particulières des marchés financiers modernes : leur volatilité, leur dématérialisation et leur côté incestueux. Ces caractéristiques ne sont pas contingentes mais structurelles. Les interactions entre l'économie de l'intangible et les marchés financiers aident aussi à expliquer les aberrations apparentes et hautement sujettes à controverse dans l'évaluation des capitaux.. Nous commençons par un bref aperçu de l'économie de l'intangible et de son impact sur les marchés financiers. Puis nous examinons quelques-unes des controverses qui entourent les marchés financiers et des explications conventionnelles des marchés dynamiques. Nous explorons ensuite les hypothèses du marché mené par l'informatique et chercherons à illustrer sa pertinence et son rapport avec les questions importantes posées comme la persistance de volatilité, le rôle des spéculateurs amateurs, les aberrations liées à l'évaluation des actions et des tendances dans la structure du marché. Nous rappelons qu'il s'agit d'une communication préliminaire, donnant un aperçu d'une série d'hypothèses de travail, qui n'ont pas été entièrement formalisées ni testées de façon extensive. Nous espérons que notre présentation stimulera de nouvelles réflexions et un travail constructif à partir de ces hypothèses. Bertrand MUNIER Stratégies dans l’économie d’Internet : création de valeurs et mirages Cet article se concentre sur la création de valeur par les sites gratuits qualifiés d’"intermédiaires" par l’auteur. Il défend la thèse selon laquelle les "pilotes purs" constitueront sans doute le modèle prévalent parmi ces sites. La capacité stratégique des pilotes purs repose sur trois dimensions internes et deux dimensions externes. Pour les facteurs internes, densité, finesse et pertinence du métier sont définies et illustrées par des exemples, leurs interactions sont discutées. Les facteurs externes sont liés à la stratégie de financement de la politique marketing et à ce que l’auteur appelle les "services de vitrine". La seconde partie montre que l’évaluation des firmes sur Internet n’est pas entièrement "irrationnelle" et explique notamment, par la psychologie du risque des investisseurs ainsi que par certains changements culturels comptables, que les actions d’Internet apparaissent comme chères eu égard aux modèles d’évaluation "rationnelle" de la théorie financière. Finalement, l’efficience des marchés d’Internet est brièvement analysée au vu des discussions précédentes. Nicolas CURIEN, Emmanuelle FAUCHART, Gilbert LAFFOND, Jacques LESOURNE, François MOREAU & Jean LAINE Naviguer sur l'Internet comme une source de segmentation du marché : une approche d'organisation personnelle Dans cette communication, nous étudions les propriétés de l'organisation personnelle d'un réseau d'agents dialoguant sur l'Internet. Les consommateurs prennent leurs options de consommation en fonction (i) du souvenir de leurs propres expériences de consommation passées, (ii) des conseils qu'ils glanent dans les forums ou (iii) d'informations extérieures (données par un revendeur classique). Nous voulons tester avec ce modèle, la capacité des consommateurs à s'auto-organiser au gré des forums qu'ils visitent en naviguant sur l'Internet ou leur tendance éventuelle à abandonner la navigation. Comprendre dans quel contexte les consommateurs s'auto-organisent sur l'Internet revient à comprendre comment les forums sélectionnent les consommateurs en fonction de leur modèle de consommation. Il apparaît une nouvelle source de segmentation du marché qui n'est basée ni sur les milieux sociaux ni sur leurs caractères psychosociologiques. Nous avons obtenu pour principal résultat que les forums participent à l'émergence d'une auto-organisation comme une propriété du système si les consommateurs ne sont pas trop radicaux en faisant trop facilement confiance aux autres, ou plutôt à eux seuls, mais cherchent un équilibre entre leurs préférences personnelles et les conseils qu'ils recueillent. Eloïc PEYRACHE, Jacques CREMER & Jean TIROLE Quelques réflexions sur les logiciels libres Cet article examine les débats récents sur l'économie des logiciels libres. Nous étudions d'abord la nature des logiciels libres, et les défis auxquels ils s'attaquent, avant de se tourner vers une analyse de leur structure organisationnelle. Ceci conduit à une discussion sur les intérêts des programmateurs qui donnent leur temps sans compensation financière et à une discussion sur la concurrence entre le commerce et les logiciels libres. Michael A. EINHORN Le coût de l'anti-contournement: Le cas du DVD En juillet 2000, le Juge Lewis A. Kaplan de la Cour Suprême du District Sud de New York a auditionné un important procès qui opposait huit importants studios de cinéma de Hollywood à l'éditeur d'un magazine on-line qui mettait à disposition un programme téléchargeable pour désembrouillage des codes de cryptage gravés sur les DVD produits par les studios, afin de les protéger contre les copies. Les activités d'anti-contournement de cet ordre ont été expressément mises hors la loi par la Loi Digital Millenium Copyright de 1998 (DMCA). Dans un procès hautement médiatisé, le Juge Kaplan a donné raison aux plaignants. La communication traite de quatre conclusions importantes dans le jugement du tribunal. Premièrement, les dérogations "de bonne foi" à la mise en application du droit de propriété ne s'appliquent pas aux réglementations d'anti-contournement. Deuxièmement, bien que la codification à la source fasse partie des moyens des communications humaines, ces communications peuvent être interdites parce que les restrictions sont neutres dans leur contenu et que la protection des DVD suppose un "intérêt supérieur de l'Etat". Troisièmement, les cryptographes qui décodent un système de cryptage numérique défectueux n'ont pas le droit de divulguer leur découverte au public sans avoir au préalable contacté le propriétaire du droit. Quatrièmement, le contournement en vue de permettre une technique inverse est autorisé aux seules personnes qui ne le contournent que dans ce but. Selon le point de vue de l'auteur, chaque conclusion pose une question que les cours suprêmes ou le Congrès doivent résoudre. Eric de FONTENAY L'économie numérique : comment les produits numériques remodèlent les règles du commerce Avec l'émergence des jeux numériques, que ce soit un MP3, "un livre électronique" ou une vidéo "mode transmission", il y a une mutation inexorable du marché des jeux en tant que denrée vers les jeux en tant que service, ou expérience ainsi que certains y ont fait référence. L'une des raisons découle du fait que le milieu numérique élimine la reproduction, telle qu'elle est subsumée dans la distribution. Dans un milieu numérique, il peut être automatiquement créé, à la demande, une copie parfaite du produit original. La distribution (et la création) de copies supplémentaires est, en outre, relativement peu coûteuse. En fusionnant la (re)production et la distribution, et en profitant des plateformes et formats ouverts, les dot.com ont, pour atteindre le consommateur, dans le domaine des jeux, littéralement court-circuité les canaux de production et distribution traditionnels. La mutation du modèle serveur-client vers un modèle client en tant que serveur, a été beaucoup plus significative. Napster est l'illustration parfaite de ce nouvel exemple type de conversion de l'ordinateur de chacun des membres depuis un statut de client à celui de serveur audio distribuant sa propre liste de fichiers MP3. Cette tendance limite très sérieusement la capacité des propriétaires du contenu à réduire la diffusion de leur propriété intellectuelle sur une grande échelle et partant d'en maîtriser la valeur marchande. L'impact le plus significatif est peut-être pourtant l'impact potentiel sur la façon dont est perçue la protection intellectuelle (copyright). Ceci met le secteur actuel des jeux et de des industries musicales en particulier, dans une position très délicate. Leur commerce traditionnel risque de partir à vau-l'eau dès lors que leurs propriétés intellectuelles seront échangées gratuitement en ligne. Paul VAALER & Lee McKNIGHT La destruction créative dans l'économie de l'Internet : l'influence de l'Internet sur l'évaluation des entreprises Le côté tumultueux des marchés financiers de l'Internet de par le monde met en évidence la nature contestable des estimations ponctuelles de la valeur réelle des entreprises de l'Internet. Dans un environnement aussi instable, les investisseurs mondiaux peuvent considérer les estimations ponctuelles de la valeur des entreprises comme plutôt néglibeables, et s'intéresser, par contre, à l'interprétation de l'échelle des évaluations possibles des entreprises étant donné les changements prévisibles dans l'environnement organisationnel, industriel et national des entreprises de l'Internet. Il y a, bien entendu, divers facteurs qui peuvent détruire les sources de revenus actuelles de telles entreprises, alors même qu'elles créent de nouvelles opportunités de rentabilité, si ces entreprises se montrent assez habiles et vives pour en tirer parti. Cet article fournit un cadre de travail permettant d'identifier et d'analyser le sens de ces risques organisationnels, industriels et nationaux sur l'estimation des entreprises de l'Internet qui génèrent la "destruction créative" des entreprises de l'Internet et leur évaluation. Une approche conditionnelle définit l'échelle des évaluations possibles d'entreprises au travers de l'examen des scénarios de substitution auxquels une entreprise de l'Internet peut avoir à faire face dans un futur proche. Une autre approche conditionnelle de l'évaluation définit les échelles d'évaluations possibles d'entreprises au moyen de la simulation de l'environnement futur d'une entreprise de l'Internet, dénommée "Monte Carlo". Nous démontrons comment ces deux approches de l'évaluation conditionnelle peuvent exposer à la fois les risques de hausse et les inconvénients liés à l'évaluation d'une entreprise de l'internet. Pour ce qui est de l'approche de l'évaluation par la méthode Monte Carlo, nous démontrons aussi comment les choix de modélisations élémentaires concernant le côté aléatoire de certains risques peuvent influencer aussi bien les estimation ponctuelles que les échelles possibles d'évaluation des entreprises de l'Internet. Nous concluons par une rapide discussion sur les conséquences de l'utilisation de telles approches d'évaluation conditionnelle dans les politiques publiques et de gestion, dans la période actuelle d'instabilité pour les entreprises et investisseurs de l'Internet. Sommaire Introduction Jacques ARLANDIS --7 Abstracts 17 Résumés 21 Articles   Financing the New Economy: Its Impact on Growth Jean-Hervé LORENZI 39 Intangible Economy and Financial Markets Charles GOLDFINGER 59 Strategies in the Internet Economy: Value Creation and Mirages - Bertrand MUNIER 91 Surfing on the Net as a Source of Market Segmentation: a Self-Organization Approach   Nicolas CURIEN, Emmanuelle FAUCHART, Gilbert LAFFOND, Jacques LESOURNE, François MOREAU & Jean LAINE 125 Some Reflections on Open Source Software Eloïc PEYRACHE, Jacques CREMER & Jean TIROLE 139 The Cost of Anti-Circumvention: The DVD Case   Michael A. EINHORN 161 The Digital Economy How Digital Goods are Reshaping the Rules of Commerce   Eric de FONTENAY 179 Creative Destruction in the Internet Economy: The Internet's Impact on Entreprise Valuation   Paul M. VAALER & Lee McKNIGHT 193 Postscript   The New Economy: a Cliché or a Concept? Jacques LESOURNE 211 The authors 217             The authors   Jean-Hervé LORENZI received his PhD in 1974 and the 1975 award from AFSE (Association Française de Sciences Economiques). He was top of the list at the Agrégation des Facultés de Droit et Sciences Economiques, in 1975. Having spent six years teaching economics at the University of Paris XIII and at Ecole Normale Supérieure, he was Advisor to the President of the Havas Group (1979-1981), he held several high–level positions at the French Ministry of Industry (1982-1984), he was Advisor to the General Director of Telecommunications (1984- 1985), General Director of the SARI Group and of the CNIT (1986-1991), Economic Advisor to the French Prime Minister (1991-1992), General Director of CEA-Industrie (1992-1994), Assistant General Director of GRAS SAVOYE (1994-1999), and professor of economy at the University of Paris-Dauphine (1992-1999). He is currently Advisor to the Directorate of the Compagnie Financière Edmond de Rothschild Banque. In addition to his professional functions, Jean-Hervé Lorenzi has published two books: Le Choc du Progrès Technique (1995), Encyclopédie de l’Assurance (1998). Charles GOLDFINGER, a French national, has a degree in architecture from the Ecole des Beaux-Arts in Paris and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley. He is a Brussels-based international consultant in corporate strategy and economic policy, with particular expertise in financial services and Information Technology. Mr. Goldfinger advises financial institutions and IT companies on the strategic responses to cyberfinance and cybermarkets. He chairs Financial Internet Working Group, funded by the European Commission. He advised the Belgian Ministry of Finance, Philippe Maystadt, on the reform of the securities markets. He was awarded a title of Officier de l’Ordre de Leopold II for this work (1988-1995). He was Advisor to the Chief Executive of Belgacom, Belgium telecommunication operator (1992-1993), European Director of Broadview Associates, a well-known international merger and acquisition firm in Information Technology (1990-1992). Charles Goldfinger was Product Planning Director for SWIFT, the leading international interbank funds transfer network (1983-1987), and he worked at the World Bank in Washington D.C, with responsibility for projects in Latin America and East Africa (1975-1980). Mr. Goldfinger has published three books: Travail et hors-travail : vers une société f l u i d e (1998), L’utile et le futile, l’économie de l’immatériel (1994), La géofinance (1986). He regularly contributes articles on international economy and finance to leading French-speaking newspapers and magazines. Bertrand MUNIER graduated from the school of political sciences at Aix-en-Provence in the 1964 class and simultaneously earned a Master’s degree in economics at the University of Aix-Marseille, France. He earned a Ph. D. in Economics in 1969 after he had been Oskar Morgenstern’s graduate student at Princeton in 1967-1968. He was later a post-doc at Yale University in 1972. Finally Dr. Munier won the Agrégation des Facultés de Sciences économiques (option économie d’entreprise) and was successively hired by the University of Lyon, Marseille, Aix-en-Provence, and finally by the Ecole Normale Supérieure of Cachan, where he created GRID in 1989. GRID (UMR CNRS 8534) has by now become one of the well-known centers of French research, at the interface of Management Science and Economics, using methodologies at the crossroads of economics, engineering and organization theory. Dr. Munier was a counselor to the Ministry of Higher Education. He has been elected by the French scientific community three times and has thus served 11 years as a member of the CNRS. He also was a member of the Comité National des Universités, where he served 5 years. He is the author and/or editor of twelve books and a hundred of various scientific papers, published in French, English, German or Russian. Bertrand Munier has won several prizes and fellowships, among which a Fulbright-Hay Senior fellowship. In 1994, as a result of his impact on Research and Academics, Pr. Munier was made a member of the French Republic’s Order of the Légion d’Honneur. Pr. Munier received in 1994 a Doctorate Honoris Causa from the International Scientific and Technical University in Kiev, Ukraine. In 1996, he was awarded the Ludwig Boltzmann ForschungsPreis from Austrian Academic Authorities and the University of Graz, Austria. In 1999, he received the Prize for Industrial Management Research from Electricité de France. Nicolas CURIEN is an expert in the field of Industrial Network Economics and Telecommunications. He is a professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et M é t i e r s (CNAM), where he replaced Jacques LESOURNE as the director of the Econometrics Laboratory. Gilbert LAFFOND, professor at the Universities of the CNAM, as well as Emmanuelle FAUCHART and François MOREAU, lecturers, are researchers at the Econometrics Laboratory ; they have, under the management of Jacques LESOURNE published a number of articles in the field of Evolutionary Economics and Auto-Organisation. Jean LAINE, professor of Economics at the Ecole nationale de la statistique et de l'analyse de l'information (ENSAI) and researcher at the Centre of research in Economics and Statistics (CREST), collaborates closely with the work of the Laboratory of CNAM. Eloïc PEYRACHE is graduated from the Ecole Normale Supérieure ( C a c h a n , France), Agrégé d'Economie et de Gestion. He is preparing a PhD in Economic Sciences. Jacques CREMER received his PhD from MIT in 1978. He has held appointments at the University of Pennsylvania and the Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Since 1991, he is Directeur de Recherche at the CNRS and assigned to the GREMAQ (University of Toulouse). He also teaches at the Ecole Polytechnique and the University of Southampton. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society and member of its executive council. His current research interests are the economics of organization, the economics of the Internet and of the software industry, contract theory and the political economy of federal systems. In each of these areas, he tries to do relevant economic theory. Jean TIROLE is scientific director of the Institut d'Economie Industrielle, University of Social Sciences, Toulouse. He is also affiliated with CERAS, Paris and MIT, where he holds a visiting position. Before moving to Toulouse in 1991, he was professor of economics at MIT. In 1998, he was president of the Econometric Society, whose executive committee he has served on since 1993. He is president-elect of the European Economic Association. Jean Tirole received a Doctorate Honoris Causa from the Free University in Brussels in 1989, the Yrjö Jahnsson prize of the European Economic Association in 1993, and the Public Utility Research Center Distinguished Service Award (University of Florida) in 1997. He is a foreign honorary member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (1993) and of the American Economic Association (1993). He has also been a Sloan Fellow (1985) and a Guggenheim Fellow (1988). He has given several invited lectures at Oxford, Lausanne Tel Aviv, Munich, etc. and is scheduled to give the Baffi lectures (2000) and the Scribner lectures (2002). Jean Tirole has published over a hundred professional articles in economics and finance, as well as 6 books including The Theory of Industrial Organization, Game T h e o r y (with Drew Fudenberg), A Theory of Incentives in Procurement and Regulation (with Jean-Jacques Laffont), The Prudential Regulation of Banks ( w i t h Mathias Dewatripont), and Competition in Telecommunications (with Jean-Jacques Laffont). He is currently working on The Theory of Corporate Finance. His research covers industrial organization, regulation, game theory, banking and finance, and macroeconomics. He received his PhD in economics from MIT in 1981, engineering degrees from Ecole Polytechnique, Paris (1976) and from Ecole Nationale des Ponts et C h a u s s é e s, Paris (1978) and a Doctorat de 3ème cycle in decision mathematics from the University Paris IX (1978). Michael A. EINHORN received a B.A. in economics from Dartmouth College in 1974 and a Ph.D in economics from Yale University in 1981. He is now a Research Fellow at the Columbia Institute for Tele-Information at Columbia University, and a Visiting Professor of Economics at the William Paterson University of New Jersey. He also serves as a consulting economist and expert witness, where he appeared in the case Universal City Studios, Inc. et al. v. Eric Corley that tested the legality of US anti-circumvention rules. In prior employment, Dr. Einhorn worked at Bell Laboratories, Rutgers University, and the Antitrust Division of the US Dept. of Justice. He also taught classes for Bell Communications Research, Columbia University, and La Scuola Superiore G Reiss R o m o l i s t r a d a in Rome, and has consulted with Pacific Gas and Electric, NewEngland Telephone, Argonne National Laboratories, AT&T, Bell Communications Research, and the World Bank. His academic and professional interests include applied microeconomics, industrial organization, and regulation, where he has edited three books and written over 50 professional articles. unicornalley@hotmail.com Eric de FONTENAY has spent his career understanding and developing solutions for the emerging telecommunications and digital markets. His focus on regulatory, technology and strategic challenges that shaped the telecommunications industry has brought him to address issues that have received focused attention in one area of the world or another. As the co-founder & CEO of Tag It, he has carved a commanding position in the online media sector by utilizing emerging technologies to exploit the synergies between content creation, publishing and syndication. Through a focus on developing content management and distribution systems, Tag It has built an infrastructure to support its growing publishing business and deployment of value-added services. Mr. de Fontenay has also remained a very active participant in leading public forums and conferences such as Streaming Media East, and Consumer Electronic Show and the International Telecommunication Society's Biennial conference. ecfont@pipeline.com Paul M. VAALER is an Assistant Professor of International Business at the Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford Massachusetts. He is also the Director of the Fletcher School’s Hitachi Center for Technology & International Affairs. At the Fletcher School, Professor Vaaler teaches in the strategy and international business fields with particular emphases on comparative aspects of technology management and management in newly-privatized industries. His current research interests include foreign investment risk-assessment and control in emerging-market countries and newly-privatized enterprises, particularly telecommunications, as well as the impact of new technologies on such enterprises. He is the co-editor of Creative Destruction: Business Survival and Success in the Global Internet Economy to be published by the MIT Press in 2001, and the co-editor of Financial Innovations and the Welfare of Nations to be published by Kluwer Academic Press in 2001. He also publishes in leading academic journals in strategy and international business. He completed his Ph.D. studies in Strategic Management from the University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management in 1996. He also has a J.D. (Law) from the Harvard Business School and an M.A. in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar, and a B.A. in History from Carleton College in Minnesota. Professor Vaaler is a lawyer with experience in public and private practice. He has also served as a consultant to the US Federal Trade Commission’s Bureau of Economics. paul.vaaler@tufts.edu Lee McKNIGHT is Associate Professor of International Communication and Director of the Edward R. Murrow Center at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University; Visiting Scholar at MIT; Founder of the Internet and TelecomsConvergence Consortium; President of Marengo Research, a consultancy, and is a columnist for Mass High Tech. His teaching focuses on Internet and communications technology, economic and policy issues, international technology innovation, and telecommunications modeling. McKnight’s current research focuses on modeling the convergence of the Internet and telecommunications industries, the global Internet economy, international technology innovation policy, and Internet telephony policy. Lee is co-author of The Gordian Knot: Political Gridlock on the Information Highway (1997), and co-editor of Creative Destruction: Business Survival Strategies in the Global Internet Economy (2001), Internet Telephony (2001) and Internet Economics (1997); all published by MIT Press. Peer-reviewed articles have appeared in several newspapers and magazines. Dr. McKnight received a Ph.D. in Political Science in 1989 from MIT; an M.A. in International Relations from Johns Hopkins University in 1981; and a B.A. magna cum laude in Political Science and German from Tufts University in 1978. McKnight has been a Fellow of the Max Planck Foundation, the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, and the Volkswagen Foundation, among others. lee.mcknight@tufts.edu Jacques LESOURNE is Honorary Professor at the Centre National des Arts et Métiers (CNAM) and Chairman of Futuribles International.